Why investors may need to lower their sights. The forces that have driven exceptional investment returns over the past 3. It may be time for investors to lower their expectations. But the reality is that total returns on equities and bonds in the United States and Western Europe from 1. Exhibit. These returns were driven by an extraordinary confluence of favorable economic and business fundamentals.
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Inflation and interest rates declined sharply from peaks in the late 1. Global economic growth was strong, fueled by positive demographics, productivity gains, and rapid growth in China. And corporate- profit growth was even stronger, reflecting revenue gains in new markets, declining corporate taxes, and advances in automation and global supply chains that helped rein in costs. Publicly listed North American companies alone increased their posttax margins by 6. A new Mc. Kinsey Global Institute (MGI) report, Diminishing returns: Why investors may need to lower their expectations, finds that the forces that have driven exceptional returns are weakening, and in some cases reversing. The big decline in interest rates and inflation is reaching its limits, global GDP growth will be lower as populations in the developed world and China age, and the outlook for corporate profits is cloudier.
While digitization and disruptive technologies could boost margins for some companies, the big North American and Western European firms that took the largest share of the global profit pool in the past 3. These forces may curtail margins going forward. The report, written in collaboration with Mc.
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Kinsey’s Strategy and Corporate Finance Practice, estimates that for equities in both regions, average annual returns could be anywhere from approximately 1. For fixed- income, the gap could be even larger, with average annual returns between 3. For example, a two- percentage- point difference in average annual returns over an extended period would mean that a 3. This would imply equity returns as high as 6 to 8 percent, considerably above the level in our projections.
As a result, these pension funds could face a funding gap that is even larger than the one they are struggling with today. Among others likely to be affected are asset managers, whose fees will come under pressure in a lengthy period of lower returns, and insurers that rely on investment income for earnings. On both sides of the Atlantic, policy makers may need to prepare for a later generation of retirees with less income. It is of course possible that other exceptional circumstances might arise to give a renewed boost to investment returns, such as strong productivity growth accompanied by low inflation. Emerging- market investments might provide higher returns. But it is also possible that even our more pessimistic projection is too mild. What is important is for investors of all types—individuals as well as institutions—to start managing their own expectations and the expectations of the people who will be affected by their investment decisions.
About the author(s)Richard Dobbs is a director of the Mc. Kinsey Global Institute, where Susan Lund is a principal and Sree Ramaswamy is a senior fellow; Tim Koller is a principal in Mc. Kinsey’s New York office; Jon Harris is a director in the London office; Mekala Krishnan is a consultant in the Stamford office; and Duncan Kauffman is a consultant in the Singapore office.